Publications

Below is a list of research publications associated with the Centre.

Books

• Brazier J, Ratcliffe J, Tsuchiva A, Salomon J (2007). Measuring and valuing health benefits for economic valuation. OUP. 360pp. ISBN-10: 0-19-856982-3

• O'Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser JR, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson D.J, Oakley JE, Rakow T (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Expert Probabilities. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester. 328pp. ISBN 0-470-02999-4.

• Luce B, O'Hagan A. A Primer on Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics and Outcomes Research.

Research Papers

Details of research papers produced by CHEBS are listed here. You can download copies of papers that are as yet unpublished.

Many of the papers available to download are in pdf format. If you do not have a pdf viewer, you can download Adobe Acrobat Reader software free (see the link on the right of the page).

Papers are listed in 3 categories:

Papers in submission

• Turner RM, Lloyd-Jones M, Anumba DOC, Squires H, Smith GCS, Spiegelhalter DJ, Stevens JW, Sweeting MJ, Urbaniak SJ, Webster R, Thompson SG. Routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis in women who are Rh(D) negative: meta-analyses adjusted for differences in study design and quality. Submitted to British Medical Journal.

Papers in press

• Stevens JW. A note on dealing with missing standard errors in meta-analyses of continuous outcome measures in WinBUGS. To appear in Pharmaceutical Statistics.

• Stevens JW. Uncertainty analysis is inherently Bayesian. To appear in Value in Health.

• Ara R, Stevens JW, Ward SE, Rees A, Durrington PN, Reynolds TM, Wierzbicki A, Stevenson MD, Pandor A. Prescribing high dose lipid-lowering therapy early to avoid subsequent cardiovascular events – Is this a cost-effective strategy? To appear in European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention.

• Brazier JE, Fukuhara S, Roberts J, Kharoubi S et al. Estimating a preference-based index from the Japanese SF-36. To appear in Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.

• Stevenson MD, Lloyd Jones M, Papaioannou D. Vitamin K to prevent fractures in older women. To appear in Health Technology Assessment.

• Stevenson, MD, Oakley JE, Chick SE, Chalkidou K. The cost-effectiveness of surgical instrument management policies to reduce the risk of vCJD transmission to humans. To appear in Journal of the Operational Research Society.

• Stevenson MD, Oakley JE, Lloyd Jones M, Brennan A, Compston JE, McCloskey EV, Selby PL. The cost-effectiveness of an RCT to establish whether 5 or 10 years of bisphosphonate treatment is the better duration for women with a prior fracture. To appear in Medical Decision Making.

Papers already published

• Strong M, Oakley JE, Chilcott, J. Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: a discrepancy approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C. 2012;61(1):25-45

• Kharroubi SA, Brennan A, Strong M. Estimating expected value of sample information for incomplete data models using Bayesian approximation. Medical Decision Making. 2011;31(6):839-852. doi: 10.1177/0272989X11399920

• Strong M, Oakley JE. Bayesian inference for comorbid disease risks using marginal disease risks and correlation information from a separate source. Medical Decision Making 2011;31(4):571-581. doi: 10.1177/0272989X10391269

• Whyte S, Walsh C, Chilcott J. Bayesian calibration of a natural history model with application to a population model for colorectal cancer. Medical Decision Making doi:10.1177/0272989X10384738.

• Kharroubi SA, O'Hagan A, Brazier JE. A comparison of United States and United Kingdom EQ-5D health states valuations using a nonparametric Bayesian method. Statistics in Medicine 2010;29(15):1622-34.

• Stevens JW. NICE work: How NICE decides what we should pay for. British Journal of General Practice 2010; 60(570):7-8.

• Nixon RM, O'Hagan A, Oakley J, Madan J, Stevens JW, Bansback N, Brennan, A. The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: A case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation. Pharmaceutical Statistics 2009;8:371-389.

• Ara R, Pandor A, Stevens J, Rees A, Rafia R. (2009). Early high-dose lipid lowering therapy to avoid cardiac events: a systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 13: No. 34.

• Nixon RM, Bansback N, Stevens JW, Brennan A, Madan J (2009). Using short-term evidence to predict six-month outcomes in clinical trials of signs and symptoms in rheumatoid arthritis. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 8: 150-162.

• Oakley J (2009). Decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for complex computer models. Technometrics, 51, 121-129.

• McCabe C, Claxton K, O'Hagan A. (2008). Why licensing authorities need to consider the net value of new drugs in assigning review priorities: Addressing the tension between licensing and reimbursement. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 24, 140-145.

• Brennan A, Kharroubi SA (2007). Expected value of sample information for Weibull survival data. Health Economics, 16, 1205-1225.

• Brennan A, Kharroubi SA (2007). Efficient computation of partial expected value of sample information using Bayesian approximation. Journal of Health Economics 26, 122-148.

• Brennan A, Kharroubi SA, O'Hagan A, Chilcott J (2007). Calculating partial expected value of information in cost-effectiveness models. Medical Decision Making 27, 448-470.

• Kharroubi SA, Brazier JE, O'Hagan A (2007). Modelling covariates for the SF-6D standard gamble health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method. Social Science and Medicine 64, 1242-1252.

• Kharroubi SA, Brazier JE, Roberts J, O'Hagan A (2007). Modelling SF-6D health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method. Journal of Health Economics 26, 597-612.

• Oakley JE, O'Hagan A (2007). Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach. Biometrika 94, 427-441.

• O'Hagan A, Stevenson M, Madan J (2007). Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis for patient level simulation models: : Efficient estimation of mean and variance using ANOVA. Health Economics 16, 1009-1023.

• Ward S, Lloyd Jones M, Pandor A, Holmes M, Ara R, Ryan A, Yeo W, Payne N (2007). Health Technology Assessment Vol. 11, No. 14.

• Connock M, Burls A, Frew E, Fry-Smith A, Juarez-García A, McCabe C, Wailoo A, Abrams K, Cooper N, Sutton A, O'Hagan A, Moore D (2006). The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of enzyme replacement therapy for Gaucher's disease: a systematic review. Health Technology Assessment Vol. 10, No. 24.

• McCabe C, Brazier J, Gilks P, Tsuchiya A, Roberts J, O'Hagan A, Stevens K (2006). Using rank data to estimate health state utility models. Journal of Health Economics 25, 418-431.

• Claxton K, Sculpher M, McCabe C, Briggs A, Buxton M, Brazier J, Akehurst R, O'Hagan A (2005). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra. Health Economics 14, 339-347.

• Kharroubi SA, O'Hagan A, Brazier JE (2005). Estimating utilities from individual health state preference data: a nonparametric Bayesian approach. Applied Statistics 54, 879-895.

• O´Hagan A, McCabe C, Akehurst R, Brennan A, Briggs A, Claxton K, Fenwick E, Fryback D, Sculpher M, Spiegelhalter D, Willan A (2005). Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies. PharmacoEconomics 23 (6): 529-536.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW, Campbell MJ (2005). Assurance in clinical trial design. Pharmaceutical Statistics 4, 187-201.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW (2004). On estimators of medical costs with censored data. Journal of Health Economics, 23, 615-625.

• Chilcott J, Brennan A, Booth A, Karnon J, Tappenden P (2003). The role of modelling in the planning and prioritisation of clincial trials. Health Technology Assessment Vol. 7, No. 23.

• Chilcott J, McCabe C, Tappenden P, O'Hagan A, Cooper NJ, Abrams K, Claxton K (2003). Modelling the cost effectiveness of interferon beta and glatiramer acetate in the management of multiple sclerosis. British Medical Journal 326, 522-526.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW (2003) Assessing and comparing costs: How robust are the bootstrap and methods based on asymptotic normality? Health Economics 12, 33-49.

• Stevens JW, O'Hagan A, Miller P (2003). Case study in the Bayesian analysis of a cost-effectiveness trial in the evaluation of health care technologies: Depression. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 51 68.

• van Hout BA, Gagnon DD, McNulty P, O´Hagan A (2003). The cost-effectiveness of two new anti-epileptic therapies in the absence of direct comparative data: a first approximation. PharmacoEconomics, 21, 315-326.

• Wight J, Chilcott J, Holmes M, Brewer N (2003). The clinical and cost-effectiveness of pulsatile machine perfusion versus cold storage of kidneys for transplantation retrieved from heart-beating and non-heart-beating donors. Health Technology Assessment Vol. 7, No. 25.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW (2002). The probability of cost effectiveness. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2:5.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW (2002). Bayesian methods for design and analysis of cost-effectiveness trials in the evaluation of health care technologies. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 11, 469 490.

• Stevens JW, O'Hagan A (2002). Incorporation of genuine prior information in cost-effectiveness analysis. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 18, 782-790.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW (2001). A framework for cost effectiveness analysis from clinical trial data. Health Economics 10, 302-315.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW (2001). Bayesian assessment of sample size for clinical trials of cost effectiveness. Medical Decision Making 21, 219-230.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW, Montmartin J (2001). Bayesian cost effectiveness analysis from clinical trial data. Statistics in Medicine 20, 733-753.

• O'Hagan A, Stevens JW, Montmartin J (2000). Inference for the C/E Acceptability Curve and C/E Ratio. PharmacoEconomics 17, 339-349.

• Payne N, Chilcott J, McGoogan E (2000). Liquid-based cytology in cervical screening: a rapid and systematic review. Health Technology Assessment Vol. 4, No. 18.

• Kharroubi SA, Brennan A, Strong M. Estimating expected value of sample information for incomplete data models using Bayesian approximation. Medical Decision Making doi: 0.1177/0272989X11399920.

• Oakley JE, Brennan A, Tappenden P, Chilcott JB (2010). Sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations. Journal of Health Economics 29(3) 468-477.

• Kharroubi SA, Brennan A (2011). A novel formulation for approximate Bayesian computation based on signed roots of log-density ratios.  Advances and Applications in Statistics 22(1) 57-76.